FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 24 May 2026
Nashville SC 2–1 New York City FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 24 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Nashville SC at 43%, draw at 31%, New York City FC at 26%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Nashville SC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SC win
43%
Actual ✓
Draw
31%
FC win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.53 – 1.14
Total 2.67
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 46%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Nashville's 1.53 xG dominance over NYCFC's 1.14 supports Over 2.5 Goals at 76%, the model's highest-confidence play."