> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 24 May, 00:30 UTC
Nashville SC vs New York City FC
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Nashville's 1.53 xG dominance over NYCFC's 1.14 supports Over 2.5 Goals at 76%, the model's highest-confidence play.
Win probability
42.9% home31.4% draw25.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Nashville SCstepNew York City FC
1.41Base xG · rolling 26-match1.19
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.53Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.14
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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6
0
7
8
5
2
1
11
12
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
1
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5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Nashville SC 2–1 New York City FC
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+