> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Sunday 14 Jun, 20:00 UTC
Netherlands vs Japan
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 75% probability because Netherlands' 1.67 xG and Japan's 1.23 xG combined for a 2.90 total that overwhelms the defensive shape either side can muster.
Win probability
44.6% home29.7% draw25.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
NetherlandsstepJapan
1.55Base xG · rolling 26-match1.28
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.67Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.23
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
2 picksProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Netherlands 2–2 Japan
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+