Bawler / World: World Cup / Netherlands
Team profile

Netherlands Prediction

Per-game numbers from 4 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
15.0
a game
13.0 faced
On target
7.0
a game
6.0 faced
Goals
2.8 – 1.3
scored – conceded
a game, 4 matches
Corners
4.0
a game
4.5 against

Netherlands prediction: Bawler's model rates Netherlands at 1.76 expected goals scored and 1.13 conceded per match across 8 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 88% of the time. They are unbeaten across their last 5 settled matches. No Netherlands fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Netherlands carry a strong attacking profile, creating 1.76 expected goals per game against a World Cup average of 1.33. They are unbeaten across their last 5 settled matches. Across 8 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Netherlands have been correct 88% of the time.

Netherlands in numbers

4 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
2.8
Goals · per game
let in 1.3
Home 2.7Away 3.0
4.0
Corners · per game
give up 4.5
Home 2.0Away 6.0
15.0
Shots · per game
faced 13.0
Home 10.0Away 20.0
7.0
On target · per game
faced 6.0
Home 7.0Away 7.0
Last 4 games
30 Jun
1-1
vs Morocco
-
25 Jun
3-1
@ Tunisia
6-4
20 Jun
5-1
vs Sweden
2-5
14 Jun
2-2
vs Japan
-

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Attack vs defence

How Netherlands compare with the World: World Cup average, per match.

Goals for
1.76
Above average
Goals against
1.13
Tighter than most
Record
4W 3D 1L
8 settled
Real goals
2.0 – 1.1
For / against, per match
Scored1.76
Conceded1.13

The grey line on each bar is the World: World Cup average (1.33 scored, 1.38 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.76 xG per match · +0.43 above the World: World Cup average of 1.33.
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.13 xG per match · -0.25 vs league average of 1.38.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 88% of the time on Netherlands fixtures (7/8).

How Bawler has done on Netherlands

88%
of high-confidence calls correct — 7 of 8, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)88%7/8

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 8)

More on Netherlands and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly