FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 10 May 2026
New York City FC 3–0 Columbus CrewMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had New York City FC at 30%, draw at 40%, Columbus Crew at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-0. The model's headline call was a draw.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
30%
Actual ✓
Draw
40%
Crew win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.86 – 0.86
Total 1.72
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+1.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 87%
✗ Lost
Value
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 29%
✓ Won