Bawler / USA: MLS / Columbus Crew
Team profile

Columbus Crew Prediction

Per-game numbers from 52 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
12.7
a game
10.5 faced
On target
4.7
a game
4.3 faced
Goals
1.6 – 1.5
scored – conceded
a game, 52 matches
Next match
56%
Columbus Crew win chance
vs CF Montréal · Wed 19 Aug 23:30

Columbus Crew prediction: for Columbus Crew's next match — Columbus Crew vs CF Montréal on Wednesday 19 Aug, 23:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Columbus Crew win looks most likely (56%).

Columbus Crew sit close to the MLS average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.51 expected goals a game and conceding 1.22. Next up is CF Montréal, where the model makes them clear favourites at 56%.

Columbus Crew in numbers

52 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.6
Goals · per game
let in 1.5
Home 1.9Away 1.4
5.2
Corners · per game
give up 3.7
Home 5.5Away 4.8
12.7
Shots · per game
faced 10.5
Home 14.2Away 11.3
4.7
On target · per game
faced 4.3
Home 5.3Away 4.1
Last 6 games
15 Aug
1-3
@ Charlotte
13-1
12 Aug
2-1
vs UNAM Pumas
10-3
08 Aug
2-1
vs Pachuca
4-7
05 Aug
3-1
vs Atlas
3-5
01 Aug
2-2
@ Inter Miami
-
25 Jul
2-1
vs Cincinnati
4-5

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs CF Montréal · Wednesday 19 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Win
56%
This team
Draw
24%
Loss
20%
CF Montréal
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Columbus Crew compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.51
Above average
Goals against
1.22
Tighter than most
Record
3W 2D 7L
12 settled
Real goals
1.5 – 1.9
For / against, per match
Scored1.51
Conceded1.22

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.22 xG per match · -0.24 vs league average of 1.45.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Columbus Crew fixtures (6/6).
Tough market: Result
Columbus Crew matches give the model a harder read here — 2/6 (33%) correct. Treat forecasts in this market as less reliable.

How Bawler has done on Columbus Crew

67%
of high-confidence calls correct — 8 of 12
Goals (Over/Under)100%6/6
Result33%2/6

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Sun 23 Aug@ Nashville SC

Recent matches (last 10)

Sun 16 Aug@ Charlotte FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 02 Aug@ Inter Miami CF
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Julvs FC Cincinnati
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 23 Julvs New York City FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 24 Mayvs Atlanta United FC
High confidence: 1X
Sun 17 May@ Philadelphia Union
High confidence: X2
Thu 14 May@ Red Bull New York
High confidence: X2
Sun 10 May@ New York City FC
High confidence: X2
Sun 03 Mayvs Minnesota United FC
High confidence: 1X
Sun 19 Apr@ New England Revolution
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INBrais MéndezAMfrom Real Sociedad€6m
INGonzalo TapiaSTfrom Sao PauloLoan
INAndré GomesCMfrom LilleFree transfer
INSekou Bangourafrom RKC Waalwijk€1m
INJosef MartínezSTfrom TijuanaFree transfer
INEric BaillyCBfrom Free agentFree transfer
INLautaro GiacconeLWfrom Argentinos JuniorsLoan
INBrooks LennonRBfrom Free agentFree transfer
OUTDiego RossiSTto Monterrey€7m
OUTMax ArfstenLWBto Middlesbrough€6.5m
OUTNariman AkhundzadaSTto Erzurumspor FKLoan
OUTEvgen CheberkoCBto Los Angeles FCFree transfer
OUTIbrahim AliyuSTto Houston Dynamo FC€217

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Columbus Crew and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly