> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 03 May, 19:00 UTC
New York City vs DC United
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
55.0% home29.3% draw15.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
New York CitystepDC United
1.44Base xG · rolling 26-match0.72
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.55Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.69
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11
7
3
1
1
16
11
4
1
2
13
9
3
1
3
7
5
2
4
3
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Home Win + Over 7.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 14.0% · @ 7.12x
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New York City 0–2 DC United
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+