FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 03 May 2026
New York City 0–2 DC UnitedMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 03 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had New York City at 55%, draw at 29%, DC United at 16%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-2. The model's headline call was New York City to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
55%
Draw
29%
United win
16%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.55 – 0.69
Total 2.25
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 84%
✗ Lost
Value
X2
Pre-match: 45%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 19%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 7.12x
- Home Win✗
- Over 7.5 Corners✓
- Over 7.5 SOT✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✗