> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Sunday 17 May, 16:30 UTC
Newcastle United vs West Ham United
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
West Ham's relegation desperation creates defensive vulnerability Newcastle's superior xG advantage (1.67 vs 1.15) can exploit for 1X banker value.
Win probability
46.3% home29.9% draw23.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Newcastle UnitedstepWest Ham United
1.54Base xG · rolling 26-match1.19
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.67Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.15
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
7
4
2
1
10
11
7
3
1
2
8
10
5
2
1
3
5
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Newcastle United 3–1 West Ham United
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+