Bawler / England: Premier League / Newcastle
Team profile

Newcastle Prediction

Per-game numbers from 50 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
13.2
a game
12.8 faced
On target
5.1
a game
4.6 faced
Goals
1.6 – 1.5
scored – conceded
a game, 50 matches
Next match
32%
Newcastle win chance
vs Liverpool · Sun 23 Aug 15:30

Newcastle prediction: for Newcastle's next match — Newcastle vs Liverpool on Sunday 23 Aug, 15:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Liverpool are favoured (42%).

Newcastle sit close to the Premier League average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.62 expected goals a game and conceding 1.33. Next up is Liverpool, where the model has them as underdogs at 32%.

Newcastle in numbers

50 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.6
Goals · per game
let in 1.5
Home 2.0Away 1.3
5.9
Corners · per game
give up 5.2
Home 6.8Away 5.1
13.2
Shots · per game
faced 12.8
Home 14.2Away 12.2
5.1
On target · per game
faced 4.6
Home 5.6Away 4.6
Last 6 games
24 May
0-2
@ Fulham
6-6
17 May
3-1
vs West Ham
9-1
10 May
1-1
@ Nott'm Forest
1-2
02 May
3-1
vs Brighton
2-10
25 Apr
0-1
@ Arsenal
2-7
18 Apr
1-2
vs Bournemouth
2-3

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Liverpool · Sunday 23 Aug, 15:30 UTC

Win
32%
Newcastle
Draw
26%
Loss
42%
Liverpool
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Newcastle compare with the England: Premier League average, per match.

Goals for
1.62
Above average
Goals against
1.33
Tighter than most
Record
2W 1D 3L
6 settled
Real goals
1.5 – 1.5
For / against, per match
Scored1.62
Conceded1.33

The grey line on each bar is the England: Premier League average (1.44 scored, 1.47 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.62 xG per match · +0.18 above the England: Premier League average of 1.44.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Newcastle fixtures (3/3).
Tough market: Result
Newcastle matches give the model a harder read here — 1/3 (33%) correct. Treat forecasts in this market as less reliable.

How Bawler has done on Newcastle

67%
of high-confidence calls correct — 4 of 6
Result33%1/3
Goals (Over/Under)100%3/3

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Tue 25 Augvs West Bromwich Albion

Recent matches (last 6)

Sun 24 May@ Fulham
High confidence: X2
Sun 17 Mayvs West Ham United
High confidence: 1X
Sun 10 May@ Nottingham Forest
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 02 Mayvs Brighton
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 18 Aprvs Bournemouth
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 22 Marvs Sunderland
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INBazoumana TouréLWfrom Hoffenheim€50m
INAladji BambaDMfrom Monaco€36m
INLukás HornícekGKfrom Braga€30m
INSean SteurCMfrom Ajax€23m
INEwen JaouenGKfrom Reims€22m
OUTAnthony GordonLWto Barcelona€80m
OUTSandro TonaliCMto Tottenham Hotspur€108m
OUTBruno GuimarãesCMto Arsenal€88m
OUTAntoñito CorderoLMto CadizLoan
OUTKieran TrippierRBto Wolverhampton WanderersFree transfer
OUTAlex MurphyLBto KaiserslauternLoan
OUTHarrison AshbyRWBto Luton TownLoan
OUTEmil KrafthRBto Free agentFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Newcastle and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly