> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Thursday 04 Jun, 16:00 UTC
Northern Ireland vs Guinea
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 78% probability because both sides project nearly identical attacking threat at 1.13 and 1.18 xG respectively, guaranteeing a free-flowing match.
Win probability
31.3% home34.8% draw33.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Northern IrelandstepGuinea
1.10Base xG · rolling 26-match1.20
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.13Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.18
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10
12
7
3
1
1
11
13
8
3
1
2
6
7
4
2
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Northern Ireland 1–0 Guinea
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+