Northern Ireland 1–0 GuineaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 04 June 2026

1–0

Northern Ireland win

> Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Northern Ireland at 31%, draw at 35%, Guinea at 34%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-0. The model's headline call was a draw.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Ireland win

31%

Actual ✓

Draw

35%

Guinea win

34%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.13 – 1.18

Total 2.31

Actual

1 – 0

Total 1 (-1.3 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed

Banker

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 78%

✗ Lost

Value

Over 2.5 Goals

Pre-match: 52%

✗ Lost

Dark Horse

Draw

Pre-match: 25%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 78% probability because both sides project nearly identical attacking threat at 1.13 and 1.18 xG respectively, guaranteeing a free-flowing match."

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