FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 24 May 2026
Nottingham Forest 1–1 AFC BournemouthMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 24 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Nottingham Forest at 34%, draw at 31%, AFC Bournemouth at 36%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was AFC Bournemouth to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Forest win
34%
Draw
31%
Actual ✓
Bournemouth win
36%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.43 – 1.47
Total 2.89
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Nottingham Forest's relegation desperation drives the banker pick as Over 1.5 Goals at 77%, with near-parity xG ensuring attacking intensity despite low-scoring context."