> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Sunday 24 May, 15:00 UTC
Nottingham Forest vs AFC Bournemouth
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Nottingham Forest's relegation desperation drives the banker pick as Over 1.5 Goals at 77%, with near-parity xG ensuring attacking intensity despite low-scoring context.
▲End-of-season stakes
Home
Nottingham Forest
Nothing to play for
16th · 1 left
Model nudged xG by −5% for motivation
Away
AFC Bournemouth
Holding European spot
6th · 1 left
Model nudged xG by +3% for motivation
Win probability
33.8% home30.6% draw35.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Nottingham ForeststepAFC Bournemouth
1.32Base xG · rolling 26-match1.52
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.43Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.47
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
8
6
3
1
1
8
12
9
4
2
2
6
8
6
3
1
3
3
4
3
1
1
4
1
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Nottingham Forest 1–1 AFC Bournemouth
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+