> MATCH.PREDICT()·Belgium: Pro League·Friday 15 May, 18:45 UTC
OH Leuven vs Antwerp
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
OH Leuven's xG advantage (1.77 vs 1.63) combined with 78% Over 1.5 probability makes the total the safest play despite balanced win odds.
Win probability
39.0% home27.5% draw33.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
OH LeuvenstepAntwerp
1.64Base xG · rolling 26-match1.69
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.77Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.63
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
OH Leuven 3–0 Antwerp
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+