FT · Belgium: Pro League · Friday, 15 May 2026
OH Leuven 3–0 AntwerpMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 15 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had OH Leuven at 39%, draw at 28%, Antwerp at 33%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward OH Leuven.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Leuven win
39%
Actual ✓
Draw
28%
Antwerp win
33%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.77 – 1.63
Total 3.40
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (-0.4 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 40%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.46x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- X2✗
> What we said pre-match
"OH Leuven's xG advantage (1.77 vs 1.63) combined with 78% Over 1.5 probability makes the total the safest play despite balanced win odds."