> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Saturday 16 May, 23:30 UTC
Orlando City SC vs Atlanta United FC
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Atlanta's away win at 45% offers value against even xG (1.62 each) and balanced win odds (36%), exploiting home undervaluation in an evenly-matched fixture.
Win probability
35.8% home28.5% draw35.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Orlando City SCstepAtlanta United FC
1.50Base xG · rolling 26-match1.68
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.62Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.62
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
6
5
3
1
1
6
10
8
4
2
1
2
5
8
7
4
1
3
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
2
1
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Orlando City SC 1–1 Atlanta United FC
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+