FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 17 May 2026
Orlando City SC 1–1 Atlanta United FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Orlando City SC at 36%, draw at 28%, Atlanta United FC at 36%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Orlando City SC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SC win
36%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
FC win
36%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.62 – 1.62
Total 3.24
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.2 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Value
Away Win
Pre-match: 45%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 22%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.57x
- X2✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✗
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
> What we said pre-match
"Atlanta's away win at 45% offers value against even xG (1.62 each) and balanced win odds (36%), exploiting home undervaluation in an evenly-matched fixture."