> MATCH.PREDICT()·Netherlands: Eredivisie·Sunday 17 May, 12:30 UTC
PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord Rotterdam
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Feyenoord's superior xG advantage (1.71 vs 1.28) and 45% win probability justify backing away victory despite PEC's home advantage.
Win probability
26.2% home29.2% draw44.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
PEC ZwollestepFeyenoord Rotterdam
1.19Base xG · rolling 26-match1.78
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.28Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.71
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
5
9
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11
9
5
2
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7
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1
1
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3
1
1
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1
1
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6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
PEC Zwolle 0–2 Feyenoord Rotterdam
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+