FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 17 May 2026
PEC Zwolle 0–2 Feyenoord RotterdamMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had PEC Zwolle at 26%, draw at 29%, Feyenoord Rotterdam at 45%. The match ended 0-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Feyenoord Rotterdam.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Zwolle win
26%
Draw
29%
Rotterdam win
45%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.28 – 1.71
Total 2.99
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-1.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 88%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 48%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 29%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.09x
- Over 8.5 SOT✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✗
> What we said pre-match
"Feyenoord's superior xG advantage (1.71 vs 1.28) and 45% win probability justify backing away victory despite PEC's home advantage."