> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Tuesday 09 Jun, 02:00 UTC
Peru vs Spain
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals commands 73% backing because Spain's 0.49 xG advantage and 46% win probability signal aggressive attacking intent Peru will struggle to contain at home.
Win probability
24.3% home30.2% draw45.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
PerustepSpain
1.12Base xG · rolling 26-match1.67
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.16Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.64
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Peru 1–3 Spain
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+