> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Saturday 06 Jun, 17:45 UTC
Portugal vs Chile
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals sits at 72% probability because Portugal's 1.72 xG nearly doubles Chile's 0.97, creating the shooting dominance needed to breach the two-goal threshold.
Win probability
51.6% home29.4% draw19.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
PortugalstepChile
1.67Base xG · rolling 26-match0.99
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.72Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.97
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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7
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12
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6
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10
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6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
2 picksProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Portugal 2–1 Chile
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+