> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Wednesday 17 Jun, 17:00 UTC
Portugal vs Congo DR
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals dominates at 71% probability because Portugal's 1.73 xG dwarfs Congo DR's 0.95, with Ronaldo and Leão accounting for 38% of the home side's attacking load.
Win probability
52.4% home29.2% draw18.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
PortugalstepCongo DR
1.73Base xG · rolling 26-match0.95
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.73Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.95
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
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5
6
0
7
7
3
1
1
12
11
5
2
2
10
10
5
1
3
6
6
3
1
4
3
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Under 10.5 Corners + Over 2.5 Goals + Rafael Leão 1+ Shot on Target + Home Win
Model 14.4% · @ 6.95x
Take this pick →> STAR_PICKS · player props
2 picksProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+