> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Tuesday 12 May, 18:00 UTC
Real Betis vs Elche
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Betis' Champions League desperation combined with massive xG advantage (2.04-1.31) makes Over 1.5 Goals the most reliable play at 78% probability.
Win probability
51.4% home26.1% draw22.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Real BetisstepElche
1.89Base xG · rolling 26-match1.37
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.04Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.31
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + Over 8.5 Corners + Over 8.5 SOT + 1X
Model 34.1% · @ 2.94x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
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Real Betis 2–1 Elche
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+