> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Saturday 23 May, 19:00 UTC
Real Madrid vs Athletic Club
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Real Madrid's superior xG (1.78 vs 1.14) and title desperation exploit Athletic's defensive vulnerability; 1X at 78% captures win/draw safety.
Win probability
49.3% home28.7% draw22.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Real MadridstepAthletic Club
1.65Base xG · rolling 26-match1.18
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.78Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.14
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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6
0
5
6
3
1
1
10
11
6
2
1
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9
10
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2
1
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6
3
1
4
2
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1
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Real Madrid 4–2 Athletic Club
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+