Bawler / Spain: La Liga / Real Madrid
Team profile

Real Madrid Prediction

Per-game numbers from 52 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
17.6
a game
12.2 faced
On target
6.7
a game
4.2 faced
Goals
2.1 – 1.1
scored – conceded
a game, 52 matches
Next match
51%
Real Madrid win chance
at Espanyol · Sat 22 Aug 19:30

Real Madrid prediction: for Real Madrid's next match — Espanyol vs Real Madrid on Saturday 22 Aug, 19:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Real Madrid win looks most likely (51%).

Real Madrid play open, high-scoring football — 1.77 expected goals created per game, but 1.74 conceded, both above the La Liga average. Form is with them: 3 straight wins. Next up is a trip to Espanyol, where the model has them narrowly ahead at 51%.

Real Madrid in numbers

52 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
2.1
Goals · per game
let in 1.1
Home 2.4Away 1.9
6.2
Corners · per game
give up 4.4
Home 6.8Away 5.7
17.6
Shots · per game
faced 12.2
Home 19.6Away 15.6
6.7
On target · per game
faced 4.2
Home 7.6Away 5.9
Last 6 games
23 May
4-2
vs Athletic Bilbao
-
17 May
1-0
@ Sevilla
4-4
14 May
2-0
vs Real Oviedo
4-5
10 May
0-2
@ Barcelona
8-4
03 May
2-0
@ Espanyol
6-5
24 Apr
1-1
@ Real Betis
6-7

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Espanyol · Saturday 22 Aug, 19:30 UTC

Win
51%
Real Madrid
Draw
25%
Loss
23%
Espanyol
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Real Madrid compare with the Spain: La Liga average, per match.

Goals for
1.77
Above average
Goals against
1.74
Leakier than most
Record
4W 0D 3L
7 settled
Real goals
2.0 – 1.7
For / against, per match
Scored1.77
Conceded1.74

The grey line on each bar is the Spain: La Liga average (1.44 scored, 1.46 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.77 xG per match · +0.33 above the Spain: La Liga average of 1.44.
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.74 xG per match · +0.29 vs league average of 1.46.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Real Madrid fixtures (4/4).
On a 3-match winning run
Form line shows consecutive wins in their most recent settled fixtures. Momentum factor worth weighting.

How Bawler has done on Real Madrid

100%
of high-confidence calls correct — 7 of 7, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)100%4/4
Result100%3/3

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Wed 26 Augvs Real Sociedad

Recent matches (last 7)

Sat 23 Mayvs Athletic Club
High confidence: 1X
Sun 17 May@ Sevilla
High confidence: X2
Thu 14 Mayvs Real Oviedo
High confidence: 1X
Sun 10 May@ Barcelona
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Wed 15 Apr@ Bayern Munich
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Tue 07 Aprvs Bayern Munich
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 22 Marvs Atl. Madrid
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INYan DiomandeRWfrom RB Leipzig€125m
INMarc CucurellaLBfrom Chelsea€55m
INIbrahima KonatéCBfrom LiverpoolFree transfer
INCarlos EspíSTfrom Levante€25m
INDenzel DumfriesRMfrom Inter€20m
INBernardo SilvaAMfrom Manchester CityFree transfer
OUTNico PazAMto Como€60m
OUTGonzalo GarcíaSTto Fulham€40m
OUTFranco MastantuonoRWto FiorentinaLoan
OUTCésar Palaciosto Fulham€10m
OUTValdeLBto Fiorentina€8m
OUTDani CeballosDMto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTFran GarcíaLBto Real Betis€4m
OUTMario MartínCMto Getafe€3.5m

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Real Madrid and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly