> MATCH.PREDICT()·Portugal: Primeira Liga·Monday 11 May, 19:15 UTC
Rio Ave vs Sporting CP
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Sporting's 73% xG advantage (2.11 vs 1.22) and 55% win probability make away victory the model's decisive edge despite Rio Ave's home status.
Win probability
19.6% home25.4% draw55.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Rio AvestepSporting CP
1.13Base xG · rolling 26-match2.19
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.22Final λ — what the Poisson uses2.11
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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8
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Rio Ave 1–4 Sporting CP
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+