Bawler / Portugal: Primeira Liga / Rio Ave
Team profile

Rio Ave Prediction

Per-game numbers from 36 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
10.4
a game
15.3 faced
On target
3.7
a game
5.1 faced
Goals
1.0 – 1.7
scored – conceded
a game, 36 matches
Next match
22%
Rio Ave win chance
at Estoril · Sat 22 Aug 17:00

Rio Ave prediction: for Rio Ave's next match — Estoril vs Rio Ave on Saturday 22 Aug, 17:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Estoril are favoured (48%).

Rio Ave sit close to the Primeira Liga average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.21 expected goals a game and conceding 1.67. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 0.80 goals a game against 1.21 expected. They have struggled lately, losing 3 of their last 5. Next up is a trip to Estoril, where the model has them as underdogs at 22%.

Rio Ave in numbers

36 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.0
Goals · per game
let in 1.7
Home 0.9Away 1.0
4.3
Corners · per game
give up 6.5
Home 5.2Away 3.3
10.4
Shots · per game
faced 15.3
Home 12.4Away 8.3
3.7
On target · per game
faced 5.1
Home 3.9Away 3.5
Last 6 games
15 Aug
0-2
vs Porto
6-6
09 Aug
0-1
@ Gil Vicente
2-5
16 May
1-1
@ Casa Pia
0-9
11 May
1-4
vs Sporting
5-6
03 May
0-0
vs Gil Vicente
9-7
25 Apr
0-2
@ Vitoria Guimaraes
5-3

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Estoril · Saturday 22 Aug, 17:00 UTC

Win
22%
Rio Ave
Draw
30%
Loss
48%
Estoril
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Rio Ave compare with the Portugal: Primeira Liga average, per match.

Goals for
1.21
Below average
Goals against
1.67
Leakier than most
Record
1W 1D 3L
5 settled
Real goals
0.8 – 1.8
For / against, per match
Scored1.21
Conceded1.67

The grey line on each bar is the Portugal: Primeira Liga average (1.35 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.67 xG per match · +0.22 vs league average of 1.45.
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Rio Ave fixtures (3/3).

How Bawler has done on Rio Ave

100%
of high-confidence calls correct — 5 of 5, well above the ~65% baseline
Result100%3/3
Goals (Over/Under)100%2/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 5)

Sat 15 Augvs FC Porto
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 09 Aug@ Gil Vicente
High confidence: Home Win
Sat 16 May@ Casa Pia
High confidence: X2
Mon 11 Mayvs Sporting CP
High confidence: X2
Sun 22 Mar@ Estoril
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INDiogo NascimentoDMfrom OlympiacosLoan
INRoland GalcíkRWfrom PodbrezovaUndisclosed
INSamuelRBfrom Botafogo FRUndisclosed
OUTOlé PohlmannLWto Greuther FürthUndisclosed
OUTKarem ZoabiSTto TorreenseFree transfer
OUTMarc GualSTto Kairat AlmatyFree transfer
OUTJoão GraçaLWto Free agentFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Rio Ave and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly