> MATCH.PREDICT()·TURKEY: Super Lig·Friday 01 May, 14:00 UTC
Rizespor vs Konyaspor
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
43.1% home28.2% draw28.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
RizesporstepKonyaspor
1.49Base xG · rolling 26-match1.32
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.61Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.27
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
7
5
2
1
1
9
11
7
3
1
2
7
9
6
2
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Rizespor 3–2 Konyaspor
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+