FT · TURKEY: Super Lig · Friday, 01 May 2026
Rizespor 3–2 KonyasporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 01 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Rizespor at 43%, draw at 28%, Konyaspor at 29%. The match ended 3-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Rizespor.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rizespor win
43%
Actual ✓
Draw
28%
Konyaspor win
29%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.61 – 1.27
Total 2.88
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Value
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 55%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost