> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Saturday 06 Jun, 17:45 UTC
Romania vs Wales
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 81% probability because Romania's 1.24 xG and Wales's 1.20 xG combine for a combined 2.44—enough attacking thrust to breach the first-goal barrier in a fixture where neither side holds a decisive edge.
Win probability
34.0% home33.8% draw32.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
RomaniastepWales
1.20Base xG · rolling 26-match1.22
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.24Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.20
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
10
6
3
1
1
11
13
8
3
1
2
7
8
5
2
1
3
3
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Romania 2–1 Wales
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+