Bawler's full prediction history and upcoming fixtures for Wales. Every pick logged before kickoff, every result settled from live data. The Poisson model has been applied to 4 Wales fixtures, with 4 now settled.
How to read this: the green bar shows the average goals Wales were expected to score per match (their xG output). The red bar shows what opponents are expected to score against them. The diamond on each bar marks the World: International Friendly average — if the bar extends past the diamond, Wales are above average there.
How to read this: the solid line is the goals Wales actually scored each match. The dashed line is the goals the model expected them to score (xG). When the solid line is above the dashed, they overperformed — they finished better than the chances they created suggested. When it's below, they underperformed. Persistent underperformance often regresses; a one-off gap usually doesn't.
How to read this: each tile is one settled match, most recent first. Green = win, amber = draw, red = loss. Numbers show the actual scoreline from Wales's perspective. Tap a tile to see Bawler's full prediction for that match.