> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Friday 05 Jun, 17:00 UTC
Russia vs Burkina Faso
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 81% probability because both sides generate similar attacking threat—Russia's 1.30 xG and Burkina Faso's 1.13 xG combine for a low-event total that still favors multiple goals in an open friendly.
Win probability
37.1% home33.7% draw29.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
RussiastepBurkina Faso
1.26Base xG · rolling 26-match1.14
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.30Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.13
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
10
6
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
7
8
5
2
1
3
3
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Russia 3–0 Burkina Faso
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+