Bawler / Russia vs Burkina Faso / Recap
FT · World: International Friendly · Friday, 05 June 2026

Russia 3–0 Burkina FasoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 05 June 2026

Russia
3–0
Russia win
Burkina Faso
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Russia at 37%, draw at 34%, Burkina Faso at 29%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Russia.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Russia win
37%
Actual ✓
Draw
34%
Faso win
29%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.30 – 1.13
Total 2.43
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.6 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.6 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Value
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 81% probability because both sides generate similar attacking threat—Russia's 1.30 xG and Burkina Faso's 1.13 xG combine for a low-event total that still favors multiple goals in an open friendly."

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