FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 03 May 2026
San Diego FC 2–2 Los Angeles FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 03 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had San Diego FC at 13%, draw at 20%, Los Angeles FC at 67%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Los Angeles FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
13%
Draw
20%
Actual ✓
FC win
67%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.01 – 2.46
Total 3.47
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 87%
✓ Won
Value
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 46%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 20%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.86x
- Away Win✗
- Over 8.5 Corners✗
- Over 10.5 SOT✗
- Over 2.5 Goals✓