> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 03 May, 01:30 UTC
San Diego FC vs Los Angeles FC
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
13.3% home19.8% draw66.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
San Diego FCstepLos Angeles FC
0.93Base xG · rolling 26-match2.55
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.01Final λ — what the Poisson uses2.46
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Away Win + Over 8.5 Corners + Over 10.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 25.9% · @ 3.86x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
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San Diego FC 2–2 Los Angeles FC
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+