> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Monday 15 Jun, 22:00 UTC
Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals lands at 68% probability because Uruguay's 1.35 xG combined with Saudi Arabia's home setup projects a narrow but consistent attacking threat across both sides.
Win probability
28.3% home33.3% draw38.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Saudi ArabiastepUruguay
1.04Base xG · rolling 26-match1.40
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.13Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.35
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
11
8
3
1
1
10
13
9
4
1
2
5
7
5
2
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
1 pickProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+