FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Seattle Sounders FC 1–1 San Diego FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Seattle Sounders FC at 23%, draw at 30%, San Diego FC at 47%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was San Diego FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
23%
Draw
30%
Actual ✓
FC win
47%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.11 – 1.64
Total 2.75
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 88%
✓ Won
Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 55%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Home Win
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.26x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 22.5 Shots✓
- Away Win✗