> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 10 May, 02:30 UTC
Seattle Sounders FC vs San Diego FC
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
23.3% home30.3% draw46.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Seattle Sounders FCstepSan Diego FC
1.03Base xG · rolling 26-match1.71
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.11Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.64
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
10
9
5
2
1
1
7
12
10
5
2
1
2
4
6
5
3
1
3
1
2
2
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Seattle Sounders FC 1–1 San Diego FC
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+