> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Friday 05 Jun, 11:30 UTC
Singapore vs China
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Singapore's home advantage and 39% win probability justify the 1X banker at 62%, with a narrow 0.30 xG gap keeping China competitive enough to threaten an upset.
Win probability
38.8% home37.4% draw23.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
SingaporestepChina
1.10Base xG · rolling 26-match0.85
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.13Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.83
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
14
12
5
1
1
16
13
6
2
2
9
7
3
1
3
3
3
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Singapore 1–2 China
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+