FT · World: International Friendly · Friday, 05 June 2026

Singapore 12 ChinaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 05 June 2026

Singapore
12
China win
China
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Singapore at 39%, draw at 37%, China at 24%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Singapore to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Singapore win
39%
Draw
37%
China win
24%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.130.83
Total 1.97
Actual
12
Total 3 (+1.0 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 62%
✗ Lost
Value
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
Bawl OutMixed@ 3.46x
  • Under 10.5 Corners
  • 1X
  • Over 1.5 Goals
> What we said pre-match
"Singapore's home advantage and 39% win probability justify the 1X banker at 62%, with a narrow 0.30 xG gap keeping China competitive enough to threaten an upset."

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