> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Friday 12 Jun, 02:00 UTC
South Korea vs Czechia
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals is the play here—South Korea's 0.42 expected-goal advantage and 2.74 combined xG total suggest a high-volume attacking game that breaks the two-goal barrier.
Win probability
43.8% home30.8% draw25.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
South KoreastepCzechia
1.46Base xG · rolling 26-match1.20
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.58Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.16
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
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5
6
0
6
8
4
2
1
10
12
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
1
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5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
2 picksProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+