> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Thursday 04 Jun, 01:00 UTC
South Korea vs El Salvador
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals at 72% probability is the play here—South Korea's 0.67 expected-goal edge and dominant 50% win probability suggest they'll break through a fragile El Salvador defence in a high-volume attacking affair.
Win probability
49.9% home29.4% draw20.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
South KoreastepEl Salvador
1.67Base xG · rolling 26-match1.06
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.72Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.05
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
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0
6
7
3
1
1
11
11
6
2
1
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9
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5
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3
1
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2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
2 picksProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
South Korea 1–0 El Salvador
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+