> MATCH.PREDICT()·Belgium: Pro League·Friday 08 May, 18:45 UTC
Standard Liege vs OH Leuven
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
48.2% home26.4% draw25.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Standard LiegestepOH Leuven
1.86Base xG · rolling 26-match1.49
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.00Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.43
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 22.5 Shots + Over 9.5 Corners + 1X + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 32.5% · @ 3.08x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Standard Liege 2–1 OH Leuven
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+