FT · Belgium: Pro League · Friday, 08 May 2026
Standard Liege 2–1 OH LeuvenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 08 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Standard Liege at 48%, draw at 26%, OH Leuven at 25%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Standard Liege.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Liege win
48%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Leuven win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.00 – 1.43
Total 3.44
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.4 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 49%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 3.08x
- Over 22.5 Shots✓
- Over 9.5 Corners✓
- 1X✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✓