> MATCH.PREDICT()·France: Ligue 1·Sunday 17 May, 19:00 UTC
Strasbourg vs AS Monaco
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Monaco's Europa push creates attacking pressure despite inferior xG, making Over 1.5 Goals the most reliable play at 78% probability.
Win probability
40.1% home29.4% draw30.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
StrasbourgstepAS Monaco
1.52Base xG · rolling 26-match1.47
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.64Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.41
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
7
5
2
1
1
8
11
8
4
1
2
6
9
6
3
1
3
3
5
3
2
1
4
1
2
1
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Strasbourg 5–4 AS Monaco
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+