Bawler / France: Ligue 1 / Strasbourg
Team profile

Strasbourg Prediction

Per-game numbers from 46 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
11.7
a game
13.3 faced
On target
4.8
a game
4.5 faced
Goals
1.6 – 1.3
scored – conceded
a game, 46 matches
Next match
21%
Strasbourg win chance
at Marseille · Fri 21 Aug 18:45

Strasbourg prediction: for Strasbourg's next match — Marseille vs Strasbourg on Friday 21 Aug, 18:45 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Marseille are favoured (54%).

Strasbourg sit close to the Ligue 1 average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.63 expected goals a game and conceding 1.36. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.11 a game against 1.63 expected. Recent form is good, with 3 wins in their last 5. Next up is a trip to Marseille, where the model has them as underdogs at 21%.

Strasbourg in numbers

46 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.6
Goals · per game
let in 1.3
Home 1.8Away 1.5
4.3
Corners · per game
give up 4.9
Home 5.1Away 3.4
11.7
Shots · per game
faced 13.3
Home 13.1Away 10.2
4.8
On target · per game
faced 4.5
Home 5.4Away 4.2
Last 6 games
17 May
5-4
vs Monaco
4-6
13 May
2-1
@ Brest
4-5
10 May
1-1
@ Angers
2-0
07 May
0-1
vs Rayo Vallecano
5-6
03 May
1-2
vs Toulouse
8-3
30 Apr
0-1
@ Rayo Vallecano
1-5

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Marseille · Friday 21 Aug, 18:45 UTC

Win
21%
Strasbourg
Draw
24%
Loss
54%
Marseille
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Strasbourg compare with the France: Ligue 1 average, per match.

Goals for
1.63
Above average
Goals against
1.36
Tighter than most
Record
5W 2D 2L
9 settled
Real goals
2.1 – 1.6
For / against, per match
Scored1.63
Conceded1.36

The grey line on each bar is the France: Ligue 1 average (1.58 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Strasbourg fixtures (3/3).

How Bawler has done on Strasbourg

78%
of high-confidence calls correct — 7 of 9, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)80%4/5
Result100%3/3

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 9)

Sun 17 Mayvs AS Monaco
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Wed 13 May@ Brest
High confidence: X2
Sun 10 May@ Angers
High confidence: X2
Thu 30 Apr@ Rayo Vallecano
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Apr@ Lorient
High confidence: Lorient or Draw (Double Chance)
Thu 16 Aprvs Mainz
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 09 Apr@ Mainz
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 22 Mar@ Nantes
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 19 Marvs Rijeka
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INFilip JörgensenGKfrom ChelseaLoan
INDiogo SousaDMfrom Vitoria de Guimaraes€10m
INFabio BaldéLWfrom Hamburger SV€7m
INGiovanni ReynaAMfrom Borussia Mönchengladbach€3m
INMateo Del BlancoLBfrom Union€2.5m
INBenjamin BrantlindCMfrom IFK GöteborgUndisclosed
INGenesis AntwiRBfrom ChelseaLoan
INMilosz PiekutowskiGKfrom Free agentFree transfer
OUTEmanuel EmeghaSTto ChelseaUndisclosed
OUTValentín BarcoDMto Chelsea€40m
OUTSaïdou SowCBto NantesLoan
OUTJunior MwangaCMto Le Havre€1.5m
OUTÓscar PereaLWto CF AmericaLoan
OUTRabby NzingoulaAMto West Bromwich AlbionFree transfer
OUTRayane MessiSTto Al-EttifaqLoan
OUTYoni GomisCBto SK BeverenLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Strasbourg and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly