> MATCH.PREDICT()·Italy: Serie A·Sunday 24 May, 18:45 UTC
Torino vs Juventus
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Juventus's Champions League urgency and xG edge (1.50 vs 1.15) make Draw/Juventus Win the optimal play despite Torino's resilience at home.
▲End-of-season stakes
Home
Torino
Nothing to play for
12th · 1 left
Model nudged xG by −5% for motivation
Away
Juventus
Win probability
26.4% home31.7% draw42.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
TorinostepJuventus
1.06Base xG · rolling 26-match1.55
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.15Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.50
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
11
8
4
1
1
8
12
9
5
2
1
2
5
7
5
3
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Torino 2–2 Juventus
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+