Bawler / Italy: Serie A / Juventus
Team profile

Juventus Prediction

Per-game numbers from 48 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
16.7
a game
11.3 faced
On target
6.0
a game
3.4 faced
Goals
1.7 – 1.1
scored – conceded
a game, 48 matches
Next match
60%
Juventus win chance
at Frosinone · Sun 23 Aug 16:30

Juventus prediction: for Juventus's next match — Frosinone vs Juventus on Sunday 23 Aug, 16:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Juventus win looks most likely (60%).

Juventus are the most complete profile in this data: creating 1.69 expected goals a game while giving up just 1.03. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 1.00 goals a game against 1.69 expected. Next up is a trip to Frosinone, where the model makes them clear favourites at 60%.

Juventus in numbers

48 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.7
Goals · per game
let in 1.1
Home 2.0Away 1.4
5.5
Corners · per game
give up 4.0
Home 6.6Away 4.4
16.7
Shots · per game
faced 11.3
Home 19.9Away 13.5
6.0
On target · per game
faced 3.4
Home 6.8Away 5.2
Last 6 games
24 May
2-2
@ Torino
6-6
17 May
0-2
vs Fiorentina
6-2
09 May
1-0
@ Lecce
7-1
03 May
1-1
vs Verona
14-1
26 Apr
0-0
@ AC Milan
3-1
19 Apr
2-0
vs Bologna
6-1

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Frosinone · Sunday 23 Aug, 16:30 UTC

Win
60%
Juventus
Draw
24%
Loss
16%
Frosinone
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Juventus compare with the Italy: Serie A average, per match.

Goals for
1.69
Above average
Goals against
1.03
Tighter than most
Record
2W 4D 1L
7 settled
Real goals
1.0 – 0.9
For / against, per match
Scored1.69
Conceded1.03

The grey line on each bar is the Italy: Serie A average (1.24 scored, 1.32 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.69 xG per match · +0.45 above the Italy: Serie A average of 1.24.
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.03 xG per match · -0.30 vs league average of 1.32.
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 83% of the time on Juventus fixtures (5/6).

How Bawler has done on Juventus

86%
of high-confidence calls correct — 6 of 7, well above the ~65% baseline
Result83%5/6

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 7)

Sun 24 May@ Torino
High confidence: X2
Sun 17 Mayvs Fiorentina
High confidence: 1X
Sat 09 May@ Lecce
High confidence: X2
Sun 03 Mayvs Verona
High confidence: 1X
Sun 26 Apr@ AC Milan
High confidence: AC Milan or Draw (Double Chance)
Mon 06 Aprvs Genoa
High confidence: 1X
Sat 21 Marvs Sassuolo
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INLoïs OpendaSTfrom RB Leipzig€43m
INRandal Kolo MuaniSTfrom Paris Saint-Germain€41m
INKerim AlajbegovicLWfrom Bayer Leverkusen€32m
INJeff EkhatorSTfrom Genoa€16m
INZeki ÇelikRWBfrom RomaFree transfer
INJérémie BogaSTfrom Nice€5m
INGiovanni DaffaraGKfrom Avellino€1m
INGiacomo Faticantifrom LecceUndisclosed
OUTDusan VlahovicSTto Free agentFree transfer
OUTTimothy WeahRBto Marseille€15m
OUTGiovanni DaffaraGKto Parma€6m
OUTLoïs OpendaSTto LyonLoan
OUTFacundo GonzálezCBto Racing Santander€2.5m
OUTJoão MárioRBto FiorentinaLoan
OUTFilip KosticLWBto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTJonas RouhiLWto CarrareseLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Juventus and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly