> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Saturday 09 May, 17:00 UTC
Toronto FC vs Inter Miami CF
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
32.0% home38.2% draw29.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Toronto FCstepInter Miami CF
0.92Base xG · rolling 26-match0.99
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.00Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.95
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
14
14
6
2
1
14
14
6
2
2
7
7
3
1
3
2
2
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Toronto FC 2–4 Inter Miami CF
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+